On October 7, 2023, Gaza launched a brutal attack on Israel, mass murdering and raping civilians indiscriminately. A “blame game” ensued, in which people weighed who or what to blame. For example, The New York Times leaned towards blaming Israel, not the Palestinians and their various militant leaders.

I break up this blame game into tiers:

• Tier 1: Official teams. This focuses primarily on Hamas, the more prominent militant leaders of Gaza, vs Israel, the Jewish State, regularly criticized for existing. Hezbolla and Houthis are other teams, often left out the dicussion. All the Islamist teams could easily be grouped as the Muslim Brotherhood, but “for some reason,” that name is also seemingly absent in this game.

• Tier 2: Team players and strategy. This typically involves the leadership and ideology: Ismail Haniyeh vs Benjamin Netanyahu, Ayatollah Khomeini vs Ben Gvir, Islamist Supremacy vs Zionism, religious rule vs democractic coalition, deluded history vs historical fact. It doesn’t get into the individual IDF soldiers or Hamas militants, since they are just numbers to those without skin in the game. Tier 2 is about ideas. Large political figures act as symbols for those ideas.

• Tier 3: State influence: Typically the Islamic Republic for Palestine vs the US for Israel. Now, I’m not sure why the US is considered Israel’s major influence, while France and Romania were historically better friends to Israel, while US flipflops on its stance. But that’s for another time.

This essay focuses on a tertiary level of this blame game, the alleged influencers. Much of the international discourse has disproportionately focused on the Islamic Republic’s involvement. While IRGC support for Hamas and Hezbollah is well-documented, this narrative diverts attention from another key player with a vested interest in the turmoil: Russia. To understand the dynamics of this conflict, we must consider the Russia’s historical ties to the region, particularly those dating back to the Soviet era, and then analyze the net impact of this conflict on both Russia and Iran.

Soviet Context

To grasp the full scope of Russia's influence in the Middle East, we need to delve into the Soviet Union's strategic initiatives during the Cold War. The KGB's deep involvement in the region is well-documented, notably through their relationship with Yasser Arafat and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). The Soviets were said to have created the “Palestine playbook.”

Many credit the Soviets for pushing Arabs to “rebrand” the Army of the Holy War. In his article "The KGB's Man" (WSJ), Ion Mihai Pacepa, a former Romanian intelligence official, claims the KGB played a pivotal role in training Arafat and rebranding his militia into the modern Palestinian identity to destabilize the region. This historical manipulation set the stage for ongoing conflicts and influenced the Iranian Revolution, establishing Russia as the puppet master behind many regional upheavals.

Russia and the Current Conflict

Firstly, there are compelling indications that Russian arms played a significant role in the October 7 attacks. According to AP News, Hamas utilized Russian-designed 9M32 Strela missiles and a variant of the Russian rocket they renamed Al-Yasin 105. These weapons, among others, point to a well-established supply line of Russian arms to Palestinian militants. Sure, Islamist and East Asian states contributed weapons as well. However, the biggest weaponry challenges during the conflict were directly due to Russian donations.

By October 8, Hamas was on Russia Today (RT) defending their attack. Senior Hamas official Ali Baraka said, “We made them think that Hamas was busy with governing Gaza and that it wanted to focus on the 2.5 million Palestinians [in Gaza] and has abandoned the resistance altogether. All the while, under the table, Hamas was preparing for this big attack… The Israelis are known to love life. We, on the other hand, sacrifice ourselves. We consider our dead to be martyrs. The thing any Palestinian desires the most is to be martyred for the sake of Allah, defending his land." The Russian interviewer seemed unphased.

I would wager that the tunnels built in Gaza were planned by Russian engineers, from Novosibirsk, not Cariro, and certainly not Hamas. I do not have evidence to back this, so take what you will out of this conspiracy. Consider that Russian tunnels and metros are far more sophisticated than that of Egypt.

Secondly, observant people noted that Russian citizens abducted by Palestinians at the Nova festival were treated different from all other nationalities. Not even the Thai or Bedouin captives received such preferential treatment. For example, a Russian Israeli hostage managed to escape Palestinian terrorists harboring him before being released back to Israel, seemingly unscathed. Russia did not hide their influence in releasing some hostages. Though there is reasonable doubt any hostages were treated well by Palestinians, the comparison of Russian hostages to non-Russian hostages raises questions about the nature of the relationship between Hamas, PIJ and Russia.

Moreover, Russia’s diplomatic maneuvering around the United Nations during this period cannot be ignored. Starting on October 7, 2023, and every day following, Russia actively pushed the UN to focus solely on the Israel-Hamas conflict, thereby diverting attention from Ukraine. Israel acted as Putin’s distraction. This diplomatic sleight of hand is indicative of Russia’s broader strategy to manipulate international crises for its gain. The media acted as “useful idiots,” parrotting this propaganda.

Gaza’s Impact on Ukraine

Zelensky and other Ukrainian cabinet members have likened Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the Arab invasions of Israel on numerous occasions, predating this conflict. In April 2022, Zelensky said that Ukraine will, "become a 'big Israel' with its own face." There are numerous other anecdotes that simply point to Ukraine siding with Israel, Palestine siding with Russia and vice-versa.

The conflict has had tangible repercussions on the Ukrainian front. Israeli volunteers and paid forces, who had been training Ukrainian forces, were compelled to return home to defend Israel. This sudden withdrawal undoubtedly weakened Ukrainian resistance efforts at a critical juncture. A video showing Ukrainian soldiers expressing solidarity with Israel underscores the strong ties and mutual support between the two nations (YouTube Video).

Furthermore, this diversion has allowed Russia to continue its aggression in Ukraine with reduced international scrutiny and response. By drawing global attention away from Ukraine, Russia has effectively weakened international support for Ukrainian defense efforts, creating a strategic advantage for itself.

Islamist State DISinterest

While it is irrefutable that the Islamist State occupying Iran has historically funded and trained terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, Tehran's involvement in the October 7 attacks appears less direct. Iranian officials appeared surprised by the Hamas assault. Even vehemently antisemitic papers like The Guardian reported that there was no known involvement between Iran and Hamas.

Islamist leaders being unaware of Hamas’ plan could simply point to the secrecy required in coordinating the attack. However, there is speculation that even Columbia University’s SJP Chapter knew about the pogrom, citing their Instagram account posting, “We are back” minutes before the attack. This should lead rational people to believe that the coordination was not so secretive. The following months further this narrative.

Remember, early into the war, it was unclear whether the Islamist State occupying Iran would get involved with the conflict at all, or simply push their proxies to get involved, despite the pleas from Hamas to receive assistance. Yes, Hezbolla entered the war early on. But it took months of daily Hezbolla attacks on Northern Israel before the IRGC coordinated meetings with them in Syria. The targetted assassination of Qasem Soleimani and other IRGC leaders, the first direct blow between Israel and IRGC, didn’t happen until April 7.

The Islamist Occupation launched a missile strike on Israel a week later, on April 14, 2024, a full 190 days after October 7. That is a long wait for a country that repeatedly vowed to destroy Israel for decades. This event, as well as the recent deaths of the Butcher of Tehran, point to the conflict as an embarassment for Islamist leadership. During the April 14 attack, 99% of more than 3000 missiles and drones were intercepted, many by ex-enemies of Israel.

By IRGC’s own admission, somewhere between 10-20% of the state approves of how the Islamist leaders are handling affairs. The majority of the state has openly pushed for revolution and end to religious rule. Online there are countless Iran-Israel alliance groups. Why would Islamist leaders undertake actions that increase the likelihood of a third revolution?

The disproportionate focus on Iran obscures Russia's strategic maneuvers and their clear consequences for each state. Protests in Iran, sparked by various internal issues since October 7, 2023, have further destabilized the region. The Arab League's failure to condemn Israel at the start of the conflict indicates a complex geopolitical landscape where Iran is not the central player it is often portrayed to be.

Pro-Soviet, Russia and Marxist Sentiment Among Anti-Israel Groups

Another concerning aspect is the alignment of vocal Israel hate groups with pro-Russia sentiments. Most, if not all, groups that vocally support the destruction of the Jewish State have similarly exhibited pro-Russia leanings. This alignment underscores the need to scrutinize the motives and affiliations of various advocacy groups to understand the full scope of international influences on the Israel-Palestine conflict.

This is another area where there are too many anecdotes to list. I will limit analysis to a few anecdotes, none of which are damning evidence of collusion between Russia and anti-Israel advocacy groups. Together, these anecdotes paint a picture.

Conspiracy theorists like (glorified podcasters) Kurt Metzger and Alex Jones regularly shout placcard strategy about the Jewish State (as well as LGBT+ members), and genuinely believe Russia was right to invade Ukraine. You simply can not find a ludicrous conspiracy on the internet without members being closely tied to anti-Israel and anti-Jewish rhetoric. Look for a “Flat Earther” or “9/11 Truther” group and overt bigotry will be right at the top of each comments. Explaining this phenomena is easy… but that’s for another time.

Then there’s allegedly “anti-war” groups like CodePink. Groups like CodePink are equally known for their pro-Russia stance as their anti-Israel stance. Their opposition to U.S. foreign policies seems to always align with Russian geopolitical interests, which raises questions about the broader implications of their advocacy.

Then there’s Marxists. Marx himself was not a big fan of Jewery, writing extensively about his hate for imagined Jewish values. You can look at any Marxist affiliated group on social media to find their links to antisemitic conspiracy. Unsurprisingly, those who are deluded enough to fight against liberalism and basic secular rights are easily influenced to harbor anti-Zionist, anti-Israel and antisemitic views.

Finally, compare the violent strategies of the elitest University protesters with Russia’s strategy following their invasion of Crimea. The so-called tentafada takes their policies straight of Russia’s play book. Russia openly threatens NATO allies, while seldom attacking; University students, staff and outside agitators openly threaten those they deem as “Zionists,” while seldom attacking. Instead, they coerce their victims to attack.

Russia has essentially trained their followers to follow a coward tactic, wherein they completely surround their enemy, scream threats, and leave no option for the victim but to push back. Once the victim responds, the media has the ability to claim the bullies were “non-violent,” and the victims were aggressors. Russia demanding Finnish ocean rights is akin to Keffiyeh-clad zombies linking hands to surround a Jew walking on their terf.

Conclusion

I do not believe it is pure coincidence that October 7, Putin’s birthday, was the day Hamas attacked. They gave Putin a gift. While I do not have documents revealing Russia's involvement in the October 7 pogrom, the logical conclusion, given the rational actions of military leaders, points towards Russia benefiting from this conflict. Russia has a net positive impact from the turmoil, whereas Iran has suffered a net negative impact.

None of this denies Palestine or Islamic Republic involvement in the conflict. I am simply implying that any legitimate international court would go after Russian officials first, for both their invasion of Ukraine and sponsoring the war on Israel. A thorough review of Russian involement would lend orgs to more credibility.

The international community should reassess its focus, recognizing Russia's strategic gains from these distractions, and address the root causes of these multifaceted conflicts to prevent further manipulation. Unfortunately for Jews—the repeat distraction of fascist leaders during economic depression—US and NATO allies are well aware that this open secret could lead to nuclear war if focused on too heavily by media or the UN. State sponsored media will emphasize Gaza and the one Jewish State over all other conflicts in the world because it is easy and safe. They simply do not face reprucussions for directing hate at Jews or Zionists, identities that are criticized for existing at all. As we see current events unfold, the relationship to Russia’s involvement should always be noted. Just don’t hold your breath that the world will say it aloud.